BUSINESS TIMES
A Sino-American détente? Don’t hold your breath
Wed, Nov 16, 2022
AFTER months of rising tensions between America and China, the meeting this week (Nov 14) between US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping has created hopes that the two nations may soon engage in some form of diplomatic détente.
The optics and rhetoric surrounding the three-hour encounter between the two national leaders in Bali, Indonesia, did help create a sense of optimism about the future of the Sino-American relationship. That followed a period dominated by geo-strategic and geo-economic battles, with many predicting that the two superpowers were heading toward a new Cold War that could trigger perhaps a military confrontation over Taiwan.
Indeed, President Biden’s recent decision to block exports of advanced computer chips to China was seen by many as the launching of a new Cold War, a signal that his administration resolved to block the rise of China as the world’s leading technological and military power.
And the evolving bipartisan consensus in Washington in support of strengthening diplomatic and military ties with Taiwan reflected growing fears among officials and lawmakers that a more nationalist China was intent on invading Taiwan sooner than later.
So when President Biden came out of the high-stakes meeting with his Chinese counterpart on Monday insisting that “I absolutely believe that there need not be a new Cold War” between the two global powers, it sounded as though despite their wide areas of deep disagreements, Washington and Beijing were ready to begin mending their relationship.
The apparent personal chemistry between the two leaders, who first met in 2011 in Beijing when both were vice-presidents, may have helped them to project a friendlier tone before and after the meeting on Monday. “I’ve met many times with Xi Jinping and we were candid and clear with one another across the board,” President Biden told reporters.
By emphasising after the meeting that he didn’t believe that a Chinese attack on Taiwan was “imminent”, Biden may have tried to alter the foreign policy narrative that is dominant in Washington these days, that a Chinese attack on Taiwan was, well, imminent and therefore required the US to prepare for a military confrontation with the Chinese.
President Biden refrained from raising expectations for the return of an era of “engagement” between the US and China, but stressed that while the two countries were “going to compete vigorously”, he wasn’t “looking for conflict” but instead to “managing this competition peacefully”.
Biden’s aides have suggested that the administration wanted to find “a floor” in the Sino-American relationship by underlining areas of mutual interest, like climate change and illegal drug trade.
Their Nov 14 meeting took place with both leaders having benefitted from a political boost at home – after President Xi secured a third term as the head of the Communist Party and President Biden’s Democratic Party defied expectations regarding the outcome of the midterm elections by remaining in control of the US Senate.
But with the Republicans poised to take over control of the House of Representatives, the GOP is likely to put pressure on President Biden to toughen his position on China, and in particular, to increase US diplomatic and military support for Taipei.
In fact, Republican Representative Kevin McCarthy from California, the probable new Speaker of the House of Representative, has pledged to follow in the footsteps of his Democratic predecessor Nancy Pelosi and visit Taiwan. Such a move will likely provoke Beijing to raise the military pressure on the island which it regards as being part of China. And that would only make it difficult for President Biden to pursue the “competition” with China in a more peaceful way.
In many ways, President Biden has embraced a tougher stand on China than his China-bashing Republican predecessor, and unlike Donald Trump, has also described the conflict with China as part of an ideological struggle between the Democratic West and authoritarian regimes like those of China and Russia.
This China strategy has been criticised by America’s allies across the Pacific and the Atlantic who continue to maintain close economic ties with the Chinese, as well as by Corporate America whose members are worried that the growing US confrontation with China, and the attempt at “decoupling” the two interdependent economies, would harm core American economic interests and increase the chances for recession.
Instead, these corporate leaders believe that expanding trade ties with US partners in Asia is the most effective way to deal with the challenges posed by China
At the same time, members of the US foreign policy establishment have expressed concerns that the tough rhetoric on both sides over Taiwan could lead to dangerous military escalation and perhaps to a war that neither side would win.
But it’s difficult to see how President Biden would be able to reverse his confrontational approach toward China and turn it overnight into a peaceful competition during his two remaining years in office, and as the “China hawks” in Washington continue to press him to toughen his stand on Taiwan and Republicans try to accuse him of being “weak on China”.
Indeed, just as Presidents Biden and Xi were getting friendly in Bali, Republican and Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill were working on an unprecedented package of billions of US dollars in military assistance to Taiwan.
These China hawks are operating under the assumption that the self-governing island should be supplied with advanced weaponry, including anti-ship cruise missiles, anti-air defence systems, drones and naval mines, in order to deter China from attacking Taiwan in the way the Russians invaded Ukraine.
The Biden administration has already, in September, announced its intention to sell US$1.1 billion in arms to Taiwan. But it has yet to respond to the military aid package being discussed in Congress.
It’s difficult to see the Chinese schmoozing with the Americans on climate change and illegal narcotics, if the Biden administration decides to give the green light to Congress to move ahead with the arms package for Taiwan, supposedly to prepare it for a Chinese invasion that President Biden is now saying isn’t imminent.
The Biden administration has also declared, back in June, that it would launch talks on a formal trade agreement with Taiwan, although it refrained from inviting Taipei to join its proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). But a bipartisan group of 52 senators and 200 House of Representatives members had written to President Biden urging that Taiwan be included, highlighting once again the obstacles facing an administration that now wants to stabilise the relationship with China.